North Korean rocket launch

North Korea lauched a long-range rocket (장거리 로켓) Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 (광명성 3호), presumably an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with the United States inside its range, only to fail on April 13, 2012. The rocket exploded 90 seconds after launch at 7:39 A.M. KST near the end of the firing of the first stage of the rocket.

Despite efforts by the international community to dissuade North Korea from launching what it claimed is not a ballistic missile but a space rocket, Pyongyang adamantly stuck to its original plan to launch a satellite into orbit for scientific research, which was the will of late leader Kim Jong-il to mark the centenary of nation founder Kim Il-sung.

Key words
long-range rocket, six-party talks, North Korean nuclear program

Evaluation
The Korean missile launch was meticulously planned before and after Kim Jong-il's death. But, contrary to its expectations, the launch could end up doing North Korea more harm than good, further isolating it from the international community and exacerbating its economic woes.

The launch was likely to serve a military purpose, but it also had political and diplomatic objectives.

First, North Korea intended to demonstrate by launching the rocket that the transfer of power from Kim Jong-il to his third son Jong-un is progressing smoothly.

Second, it wanted to close ranks by resisting international demands.

Third, it could be trying to create obstacles to exact more concessions from other participating nations in the six-party talks. It could also accelerate its nuclear weapons program. The North conducted its first nuclear test just three months after launching the Taepodong-2 missile in 2006 and conducted another nuclear test a month after launching the second long-range missile in 2009.

While North Korea prepared for its next launch, the other countries in the six-party talks had their hands tied because they were in the process of electing new leaders. Russia held the presidential election in March, and President-elect Vladimir Putin has yet to be inaugurated. China faces a shift in its leadership this year and is not in a position to revise its existing policy toward North Korea. Japan has seen several leaders come and go over the last six years, and Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who took office only recently, has his plate full with domestic problems.

South Korea and the United States also face presidential elections this year and are not in any position to focus on North Korean problems.

International responses
North Korea wished to take full advantage of the above fallow periods and resorted to a carrot-and-stick method in dealing with the international community. On the one hand it was demonstrating a willingness to resume the stalled six-party talks and promising to freeze its uranium enrichment program and re-admit the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.

But it also pushed ahead with its long-range missile launch. Such a two-pronged approach put the other countries in the six-party talks in a tough position and posed political dilemmas for Seoul and Washington.

China is displeased with the North's nuclear weapons and missile development programs, but it does not want North Korea to implode or clash militarily with South Korea. As a result, it only expressed concern about the rocket launch but opposed further sanctions and tried to resume the six-party talks.

If the U.S. halts the food aid, Pyongyang will refuse to freeze its uranium enrichment program, keep IAEA inspectors out and blame Washington for it. That could be why the North believes the missile launch would lead to more benefits than losses. In future, it will find it harder to gain economic cooperation from other countries, and this will only raise its dependence on China. North Korea is causing China a tremendous political and diplomatic burden with the missile launch, and its nuclear weapons and missiles could also be threats to China. Beijing may support Pyongyang now, but that could change any time.

The latest problem has also increased global attention to and concerns about North Korea's weapons of mass destruction. By dashing the hopes of the international community and choosing to isolate itself further, Kim Jong-un is only increasing pressure on the stability of his regime.

International legal issues
The following questions should be answered:
 * Whether the North Korean rocket was flying within the range of neighboring state's sky.
 * As a matter of the international customs and practices, the sky over the altitude of 100 km is believed to be free. So any flying object within the altitude of 100 km sky is subject to interception of the defensive country.


 * Who is required to compensate for any damage arising out of the rocket debris.
 * Whether North Korea is entitled to launch its own rocket into orbit.
 * In principle, any sovereign state is entitled to use the space in a peaceful manner, but North Korea is subject to the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) owing to its breaches of other international norms.


 * What kind of international law North Korea has breached.
 * North Korea has been prevented from using any ballistic missile technology by UNSC Resolution 1695 (dated July 15, 2006) and Resolution 1718 (dated October 15, 2006). As the International Court of Justice held in 1992 that the UNSC resolution is superior to any other international laws, North Korea is obliged to observe the UNSC resolution as a member of the United Nations.


 * What kind of sanctions North Korea will face.
 * On April 16, 2012, UNSC adopted a presidential statement, which has the backing of all 15 members, including China, condemning such provocations are serious and totally unacceptable. Ensuring that there is a consequence for North Korea's launch, the presidential statement provided for new sanctions. But it is worried that the modest tightening of sanctions alone would significantly change North Korea's behavior.
 * At the moment, UNSC seemed to have no option but to call on North Korea to immediately comply fully with existing UNSC resolutions, including that it abandon all nuclear weapons and existing programs in a "complete, verifiable and irreversible manner." The council demanded that North Korea not conduct any further launches that use ballistic missile technology, conduct any nuclear tests or carry out any further provocation.