Greater Tumen Initiative

The Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI, 광역두만 개발계획/廣域豆滿開發計劃), originally the Tumen River Area Development Programme (TRADP, 두만강 개발계획/豆滿江開發計劃), is a regional cooperation mechanism under the auspicies of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) joined by five countries including the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of Korea (ROK, South Korea), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea), Mongolia, and Russian Federation since 1995. Japan is an observor.

GTI is a unique intergovernmental platform for economic cooperation and exchanges for Northeast Asia and serves as a catalyst in expanding policy dialogue and strengthening fundamentals for improving the business environment.

Key words
GTI, Tumen River, regional cooperation mechanism, three Northeast provinces of China

Background
Northeast Asia is the vast geographic ensemble that stretches from Mongolia in the West to the Pacific coasts of Russia and the Korean Peninsula in the East and encompasses North East China. The geographical coverage of GTI itself involves the three Northeast provinces (Liaoning, Jirin and Heilongjiang) and Inner Mongolia of China; the Rajin-Sonbong Economic and Trade Zone of North Korea; the Eastern Provinces of Mongolia; the Eastern port cities of South Korea and the Primosky Territory in the Russian Federation.

This region possesses enormous potential for investment and job opportunities with its skilled, educated and lowcost labor pool. The Tumen River ties this region together at the crossroads of vital trade, transport and energy routes. Rich in gas, oil and minerals, the Greater Tumen Region has easy access to affluent markets in the GTI five member countries and Japan, representing over 500 million consumers. The huge economic potential of the Tumen River region can only be fully harnessed through dynamic cooperation among its neighbours and sharing of resources.

The core decision-making institution of GTI is the Consultative Commission composed of government representatives from all five GTI member countries. The role of the Consultative Commission is to foster support for the development of North-East Asia and the Tumen River Economic Development Area in particular. Moreover, it promotes mutual understanding as well as economic, environmental and technical cooperation among the peoples and countries of the Greater Tumen Region.

GTI organization includes the Business Advisory Council (BAC), with the strong support of the UN Office for Partnerships. This institution serves as a concrete private-public partnership mechanism to promote economic cooperation and attract investment in the region. The other institutional structures are the Energy Board, a Tourism Council and a Cooperation framework mechanism on environment. They will strengthen regional cooperation in the priority sectors of GTI.

Relevant GTI agreements

 * Agreement on the Establishment of the Consultative Commission for the Development of the Tumen River Economic Development Area and Northeast Asia (두만강 경제개발지역 및 동북아시아 개발을 위한 협의위원회 설립 협정)


 * Memorandum of Understanding on Environmental Principles Governing the Tumen River Economic Development Area and Northeast Asia (두만강 경제개발지역 및 동북아시아에 적용되는 환경원칙에 관한 양해각서)

Priority Actions to Atract Investment
See the document prepared by the UNDP China Office.

Strategic review on GTI
The transition of the programme ownership from UNDP to the member states in 2005 conceived the GTI Strategic Action Plan (SAP) 2006-2015 under the Changchun Agreement. With only five years remaining of the GTI SAP 2006-2015, the member states agreed for the first time to conduct a Strategic Review on GTI in September 2010, to identify the current situation and progress of GTI and to support the decision making of the member states as a reference for the future development of GTI. The GTI Strategic Review Consultant Team was composed of the Coordinating Consultant, National Consultants of: China, Mongolia, ROK, Russia, and the Assistant Consultant. The Strategic Review under auspices of the UNDP-ROK Trust Fund was published in September 2011.

Readers may find the relevant GTI issues and recommendations in terms of functional aspects, spaticl aspects, institutional aspects. GTI, however, still lacks strong political will and commitments of the member states, does not appear to have a shared vision or long-term goals, and as a consequence its projects and work programmes have often been un-specific, un-measurable, un-achievable, un-realistic, and time un-limited. With rapid growth and opening of the member states and rapid power shift in the world politics, the GTI region has now a growth potential greater than ever before and the member states, both the current and potential, are in a great need of cooperation in various areas. GTI member governments, in order not repeat the past failures, need to show their strong will for and commitments to the successful completion of the SAP and set a common vision to be shared by all member states and stakeholders. Hence, a "model" vision is proposed as follows:
 * The vision of GTI, as a regional cooperation platform in Northeast Asia, is to increase mutual benefits of its members and to contribute to peace and stability in Northeast Asia as a whole, by facilitating a favourable environment for trade and investment, accelerating transport and communication connectivity, and promoting sustainable development in the Greater Tumen Region.

China's involvement and prospects of GTI
In August 2009, China’s development plan (동북3성 진흥계획/長吉圖 開發規劃) of three provinces in Northeast China ― Liaoning, Jirin and Heilongjiang ― gave a new impetus to GTI. When GTI with great potential is fully implemented, this area will be a departure point of new Railway Silk Road, resources development centers, industrial and logistic complexes and cross-border sightseeing places. But lackluster leadership, insufficient inter-government cooperation, shortage of development funds and investment incentives, etc. caused little progress in the Tumen River area. The North Korean Nuclear problem has made matters worse. In fact, GTI was found on the basis of mutual interest of participating countries. China has to advance the economic conditions of Northeastern three provinces compared with other developed area. North Korea has to explore new economic vitality while its brethren country in the South should establish the economic base for unification. Russia wishes to develop its Far Eastern region by exporting its huge resources. Mongolia has put it on the top priority to develop and export mineral resources. At the initial stage, GTI member states were usually more vigilant about the benefits and advantages of other countries rather than the interest they could make the most of from GTI projects. The differences of open-door policy among neighboring countries ― North Korea, China and Russia ― retarded the progress of GTI projects. GTI leadership should be urgently strengthened. Then it is recommendable for the current Six-Party Talks in Beijing to be moved to the Tumen River area, with the additional attendance of Mongolia, for the ultimate purpose to denuclearize North Korea. Next is to improve the operation of GTI affairs. Though China and Russia have strong voice with their abundant resources, other resource importing countries should be given countervailing powers so as to maintain sound economic cooperation. It is important to keep China from being the sole lead in GTI projects including the discussion on the Northeast Asian Development Bank (NEADB). This mission might be left to South Korea, which is requested to play a balance weight in the Northeast Asian region. Last but not least, it is also important to prevent outer circumstances from influencing GTI affairs. It is necessary to make a diplomatic proclamation that all the member states are to ensure the safe and sound operation of GTI projects regardless of external factors under any circumstances.

Competition between China and Russia
Since November 2009 when North Korea withdrew from GTI, Rajin, a North Korean port, is beyond the realm of GTI. Competition between Russia and China is heating up as the two countries independently work to develop neighboring sections of Rajin port.

While a 50-km road linking the province’s city of Hunchun with Rajin port has already been constructed by the Chinese government, which started transporting coal via the port to southern China two years ago, a joint venture between Russia and North Korea completed repair work of a 54-kilometer railway line linking the Russian coastal district of Khasan with Rajin port in September 2013. China is currently working to make North Korea’s ports, including Rajin, bases for exporting and importing goods under the slogan of "leasing ports, going out to sea."

Analysts have pointed out the possibility that China may exploit the North Korean port as a military base in the future. It must be a nightmare to Japan as well as the United States.

A wall decoration (pictured below) at the Hunchun International Hotel illustrates that Hunchun is located at the center of Northeast Asia and the flourishing Rajin port could be a threat to Japan because Chinese cargo ships will be followed or escorted by Chinese warships in the near future.